640,000 Young Israelis Face Choice That Could Swing 12 Knesset Seats

On Tuesday, October 27, approximately 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will cast ballots for the first time in a national election. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that this cohort represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. If turnout remains high, the votes of these young citizens could determine the outcome of as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

The group's political leanings are not monolithic. A September 23 poll by N12 found that 74% of young people identify as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. Among those polled, 16% said they would vote for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, and 14% said they would support Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that while Jewish voters have trended rightward over the last two decades, military service does not automatically produce a nationalist stance. She observed that many young voters are questioning the goals of the current war.

Hoffman and her team surveyed potential first-time voters in May. The data showed that 80% to 95% of respondents across all demographic groups said they would definitely or likely vote. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty in their participation. Arab Israeli voters, who have not shifted rightward, are also more eager to vote in this cycle than in previous elections. Hoffman attributed this engagement to a history of instability during their adolescence, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the October 7 attack.

National security and the cost of living are the top priorities for both Jewish and Arab young voters. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in a military preparation program, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party. He supports the party's actions in the West Bank despite disagreements with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over Gaza. Conversely, Tomer Shiloh, also 18 and in a similar program in the Golan Heights, intends to vote for the opposition Change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men and lower living costs.

Sergeant M, a 22-year-old reservist who requested anonymity, is voting for the left-of-center Democrats party primarily for economic reasons. He cited the high cost of tuition, housing, and food as barriers to starting university after completing his mandatory service. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, lives in Shef-Amra in northern Israel. He plans to vote for an Arab party that prioritizes resource allocation and crime reduction. Sabeh said he is urging his friends to vote to prevent four more years of government led by Netanyahu.

The election is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. The Israel Democracy Institute co-sponsored a recent event for young voters with the Yigal Allon Center, where more than 1,000 first-time voters gathered to hear from politicians. The institute’s research indicates that high turnout among this demographic will be a deciding factor in the final seat distribution.