Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in early Israeli election polls

Early exit polls released after voting closed at 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday showed Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc holding a slight lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. The preliminary results gave Eisenkot’s alliance 52 seats in the 120-seat parliament, while Netanyahu’s camp secured 50.

The Central Elections Committee reported that 77.7% of eligible voters cast ballots by the close of voting. That figure marks the highest turnout in Israel since 1999. The high participation rate intensified the stakes of the race, which voters described as a decision on the country’s direction after the wars that followed the October 2023 Hamas-led attack.

Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, faces a tight race against Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly two decades across multiple tenures. No single party won a majority in the Knesset, meaning the final government will depend on post-election negotiations among party leaders.

Shira Efron, a policy analyst at the Rand Corp. think tank, said the exit polls pointed toward an opposition victory. She told NPR that the most likely scenario is the president granting Eisenkot the mandate to form a government. Efron noted that Eisenkot might attempt to form a minority government or seek an alliance with Arab politicians.

Voters expressed strong opinions on the need for change. Naama Aaronsohn, a voter, said the election was more than important. "It's crucial," she said. "I'm worried.. What's going to become of our country if there's not a major change?" Itamar Ariel, another voter, said he voted for security and believes no one can replace Netanyahu.

Turnout was particularly strong in majority-Arab areas. Nur Abu Na, a 30-year-old nurse, said the current government is racist against Arab citizens. "This government it's not good for us and .. not good for anyone," she told NPR. Netanyahu posted multiple times on social media during the day, urging his right-wing supporters to vote and highlighting the high number of Arab citizens casting ballots.

At an election party in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot’s supporters cheered as the exit poll results were announced. Ophelie Namiech, an opposition supporter, said the results were good but complex. "I'm anxious," she said. "It takes time before we have a full picture."

In Jerusalem, Netanyahu’s Likud Party held an election night event with large screens playing videos of military operations and President Donald Trump shaking hands with the prime minister. Trump has publicly endorsed Netanyahu. The two leaders plan to launch major attacks against Iran after the Israeli and U.S. midterm elections, following previous conflicts in June 2025 and February 2026.

Elie Pieprz, a Netanyahu supporter at the Jerusalem event, said he believed the current leadership would stand by the prime minister during wartime. "Right now we're in a war .. as unattractive as that may be to sound internationally, that's the reality," he said. Pieprz added that voters likely believe Netanyahu needs to lead the war against Iran with President Trump.

Vote counting continues on Wednesday, and the electoral map may shift as the final tally is completed. If no bloc wins an outright majority, it could take days or weeks to determine who will be Israel’s next prime minister.