Carney claims U.S. trade talks are shifting toward Canadian terms

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters in Toronto on Monday that trade negotiations with the United States have intensified slightly. Carney attributed this movement to the U.S. government aligning its position more closely with Canada’s demands. The remarks were made eight days before U.S. midterm elections, a period during which White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has suggested the two nations are close to reaching an agreement.

Carney described the recent shift as a slight intensification of discussions but noted that Canada’s core negotiating stance has not changed. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc’s office described the current state of affairs as a constructive dialogue with Washington. Carney acknowledged uncertainty regarding whether President Donald Trump would fully honor a new agreement. When asked if the president would sign a deal in pen rather than pencil, Carney replied, I don’t know that.

The current stalemate follows a breakdown in August when Canada rejected U.S. terms that crossed its red lines. In response, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion in Canadian goods. Canada retaliated with its own trade restrictions. Last Friday, Trump announced he would lift some of those 50% tariffs on Canadian goods while imposing new tariffs on dozens of other products.

Two days after that announcement, Trump told a campaign rally in Michigan that Canada was willing to give the U.S. anything at this moment. He stated that a deal would be settled pretty soon. In a separate interview with a Detroit television station, Trump said an agreement could be reached before the midterms, though he also noted it might take months.

Trade policy has become a factor in closely watched Senate races. In Michigan, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is running a campaign ad stating that Canada is not our enemy and that the tariff war needs to end now. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins has pressed the administration to ease tariffs on Canadian goods used by farmers and businesses. Washington announced exemptions for some of these goods on Friday.

The U.S. trade deficit with Canada is driven primarily by energy imports. The United States buys millions of barrels of Canadian oil daily at a discount. When energy is excluded from the calculation, the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Canada. Trump has also sought to have automakers move production from Canada to the U.S., a move that threatens an industry with deeply integrated cross-border supply chains.

Carney hosts European Union leaders in Montreal on Thursday and Friday to pursue closer economic and security ties. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed making Canada the EU’s first associate member, a status that has not yet been defined. Carney has also set a goal to double Canadian exports to markets outside the United States over the next decade.